Global Economy Could Lose $11 Trillion to El Niño, IFAD Warns as Food Security Fears Mount.

The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has issued a stark warning that the global economy could lose up to $11 trillion to El Niño, with the climate phenomenon expected to have significant and lasting effects on food security worldwide.

The warning came in a new report titled "Food Systems Under Stress: Building Resilience from the First Mile," released at the ongoing COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, in collaboration with the Türkiye Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.

The report identified El Niño as one of several overlapping climate and economic shocks increasingly affecting small-scale food producers and rural economies. It noted that global energy and fertiliser shocks in 2026 had spread across food systems within a single planting season, driving up costs from production and processing to transportation and distribution.

Small scale farmers, who produce about one third of the world's food, have been hit particularly hard by these compounding crises. IFAD emphasized that the growing frequency and interaction of climate and economic shocks underscores the need for stronger resilience across rural economies rather than relying on isolated interventions.

The organization advocated for coordinated investments that improve farmers' access to agricultural inputs and technology, markets and financial services, including credit and weather insurance. IFAD President Alvaro Lario said evidence from the organization's investments showed that resilience was stronger when interventions were implemented together. Where the three areas were addressed together, farmers' incomes increased by more than 40 percent, while technology adoption rose by three-quarters.

The report also found that combining interventions could significantly reduce farmers' losses when climate and price shocks occur simultaneously.

Türkiye's Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, Ibrahim Yumakli, stressed the importance of preparing farmers before climate-related crises occur, noting that farmers' ability to withstand shocks depends on access to water, affordable inputs, finance, insurance and reliable markets.

Meanwhile, World Meteorological Organisation Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that El Niño could intensify heat-related illnesses, disease outbreaks and air pollution into 2027. Speaking at a COP31 news briefing, Saulo said above-average temperatures could trigger health threats extending beyond direct exposure to extreme heat.

The WMO is working with the World Health Organisation to improve communication about weather related health risks. Preliminary estimates indicate more than 30,000 excess deaths linked to heat waves, drought and wildfires in Europe. Saulo also highlighted preparations underway in South America, including measures to establish emergency shelters ahead of potential flooding.

The findings demonstrate that building resilience requires investments that enable farmers to sustain production during shocks a lesson that grows more urgent as climate and economic pressures converge on the world's food systems.