Sudan: Drought and War Push Millions Towards Hunger as Famine Risk Deepens

A severe drought is compounding the effects of Sudan’s prolonged civil war, threatening harvests and livelihoods as humanitarian agencies warn that more people could be pushed into extreme hunger.

KHARTOUM, Sudan — Sudan is facing a worsening food crisis as drought, conflict and declining humanitarian assistance converge to threaten millions of people already struggling to survive. With rainfall severely reduced during the 2026 rainy season, farmers and livestock owners are confronting mounting losses while millions of displaced people remain dependent on assistance.

A Reuters report published on October 23 described how drought associated with El Niño is intensifying the humanitarian consequences of a war that began in April 2023. The United Nations-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) had already warned on October 12 of a growing risk of famine in parts of Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan.

The warning is not a declaration that famine has officially been established throughout these regions. Rather, it signals that conditions could deteriorate to famine levels if food access, livelihoods, humanitarian assistance and security continue to worsen.

Drought threatens an already fragile food supply

According to Reuters, rainfall during July–September 2026, Sudan’s peak rainy season, was the lowest in more than three decades nationwide. The resulting conditions have damaged crops and weakened livestock, particularly in parts of Darfur, Kordofan and Gedaref.

For farming communities, poor rainfall can mean failed harvests, reduced household food supplies and less income from agricultural production. Livestock owners face declining pasture and water availability, weakening animals and threatening the livelihoods of families who depend on them.

The consequences extend beyond rural households. When local production falls, markets can become more dependent on supplies transported from elsewhere, while insecurity and transport difficulties can restrict distribution and increase prices. For families who have already lost homes, assets or employment because of the conflict, rising food costs can make basic meals unaffordable.

The crisis is especially dangerous because the drought is occurring alongside displacement and the destruction of essential services. Many communities have limited access to healthcare, clean water and adequate nutrition, increasing the risk that hunger will lead to severe illness and death.

Millions already face acute food insecurity

The IPC’s May 2026 analysis estimated that approximately 19.5 million people in Sudan were experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity between February and May. This represented around 41 per cent of the population covered by that assessment.

The classification included people in different levels of need, from Crisis and Emergency conditions to Catastrophe, the most severe phase of acute food insecurity short of a famine classification. These categories should not be treated as interchangeable: the severity of hunger and the evidence required for each classification differ.

The IPC’s October 12 alert warned that the situation was deteriorating in areas of Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan. Conflict, mass displacement, severe drought and inadequate humanitarian funding were identified as major drivers.

The World Food Programme (WFP) has also warned that worsening drought could push an additional 350,000 people into severe hunger by the end of 2026, with a further 1.2 million potentially affected by August 2027. These are projections, not confirmed future totals, and depend on how weather, conflict, food availability and assistance develop.

War makes relief harder to deliver

Sudan’s food crisis cannot be explained by weather alone. Fighting between rival armed forces has displaced millions, disrupted agricultural activity and damaged the systems required to produce, transport and distribute food.

Humanitarian agencies face obstacles reaching some of the communities most in need. Insecurity, access restrictions, damaged infrastructure and funding shortages complicate relief operations. Even when food is available, getting it safely to people in isolated or conflict-affected areas can be difficult.

Funding constraints have also forced humanitarian organisations to prioritise the people facing the most severe needs. Reduced assistance can leave households with fewer meals, smaller portions or no reliable source of food when local supplies fail.

The result is a dangerous combination: less food being produced, greater difficulty moving available supplies, and fewer resources to help families who cannot afford what remains.

Why famine risk is a warning that demands action

A formal famine classification requires evidence about extreme food deprivation, acute malnutrition and mortality. The IPC’s warning of an increased risk of famine means that conditions could reach that threshold under worsening circumstances; it does not mean every affected area has already crossed it.

That distinction matters for accurate reporting, but it should not diminish the urgency. Preventing famine requires action before the most severe thresholds are reached.

The IPC has called for an end to hostilities, protection for civilians, sustained humanitarian access and increased funding. Aid organisations also need the ability to support agricultural livelihoods, protect water supplies and provide treatment for severe malnutrition.

Emergency food distributions remain essential, but they cannot by themselves resolve a crisis sustained by conflict and failing livelihoods. Communities also need security, access to farmland and markets, functioning health services and opportunities to rebuild their sources of income.

The danger extends beyond the next harvest

Sudan’s worsening conditions illustrate how conflict and extreme weather can reinforce one another. War weakens the ability of communities to withstand drought; drought then reduces food production and income, deepening the consequences of displacement and insecurity.

Without improved humanitarian access and sufficient resources, the coming months could bring further deterioration for families already living on the edge of survival.

The central question is whether assistance and protection can reach vulnerable communities before hunger becomes even more deadly. For millions of Sudanese, that is not a distant policy debate. It is a question of whether there will be enough food, clean water and medical care to survive the next season.